Re: NHC Discussion and track
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/28/2016, 5:34 pm
The NHC has highlighted the uncertainty regarding intensity (5pm Sunday):

"The depression will be moving through a marginal environment for
intensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of
15 to 20 kt.  As a result only slow strengthening is expected in
the short term.  Later on, the environment may improve a little as
the shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become
southwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening.
However, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the
ECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the
GFS delays development until 4-5 days. Much of the tropical
cyclone guidance is more aggressive. Given this uncertainty, the
NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system
peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in
consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF.  Needless to
say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than
usual for this system."
100
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99L has become Tropical Depression Nine - Chris in Tampa, 8/28/2016, 4:48 pm
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