best track last report 00Z on the 11th / P32L
Posted by cypresstx on 9/12/2016, 12:43 pm
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932016.dat

AL, 93, 2016090712,   , BEST,   0, 150N,  515W,  25, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1014,  150,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016090718,   , BEST,   0, 157N,  532W,  25, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1014,  150,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016090800,   , BEST,   0, 163N,  549W,  25, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1014,  150,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016090806,   , BEST,   0, 167N,  560W,  25, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1014,  150,  50,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016090812,   , BEST,   0, 172N,  570W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  150,   0,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016090818,   , BEST,   0, 177N,  585W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,   0,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016090900,   , BEST,   0, 179N,  600W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016090906,   , BEST,   0, 183N,  612W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016090912,   , BEST,   0, 185N,  625W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016090918,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  640W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016091000,   , BEST,   0, 199N,  647W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016091006,   , BEST,   0, 204N,  661W,  20, 1014, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1016,  150,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
AL, 93, 2016091012,   , BEST,   0, 210N,  675W,  20, 1015, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1017,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016091018,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  687W,  20, 1016, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1018,   90,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2016091100,   , BEST,   0, 219N,  698W,  20, 1016, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1018,   90,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,


NRL Pouch Tracking still has it as P32L  http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016-atlantic.html

but, as of this moment, last gave a synopsis on the 9th (they don't update on wkends)

SYNOPSIS 2016090900

P32L  93L  (NHC: 10% 2-day / 10% 5-day)
17N, 53W
700 hPa

ECMWF:  Consistent story of a tiny pouch with a NW track, but stronger and not tracking as poleward as yesterday.  Off the east coast of Florida by Day 4.  OW peaks at almost 7x10-9 s-2 during 36-48 hours, then drops to below 1x10-9 s-2 by 84 hours.  OW increases back up to almost 2x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours, but 93L loses CL-trough intersection after 96 hours as it moves into the subtropical ridge.

GFS:  Continues to be weaker and even smaller than in ECMWF.  Dissipates after only 72 hours.




I frankly see more rotation in the gulf than east of FL:  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/wavetrak/tpwvwind/low_level/movies/tpwvwind.html


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93L - canetrakker, 9/10/2016, 11:50 am
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