| Recon would have been nice to have already. It's on the way: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ This is looking rather healthy. While technically it's only forecast to be 70mph at first landfall, I would think it's much more likely to be a hurricane. (though hurricane strength is one 5mph advisory increment away from that) It might be a bit stronger than that, it has some time. Not having recon to know more about the core is unfortunate. But they will have sampled it within the next couple hours. "Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 Visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with banding features starting to appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the southwest quadrant and the center is still estimated to be located near the southwest edge of the main cloud mass. Given the increase in organization after the 12Z Dvorak intensity estimate of 45 kt from TAFB, the advisory intensity is set to 50 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this afternoon and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm. The upper-level environment is becoming increasingly conducive for intensification, with anticyclonic outflow becoming established over the tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. Franklin could become a hurricane before its first landfall, but interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause some weakening on Tuesday. Thereafter, Franklin will be moving over SSTs near 30 deg C, which of course favors strengthening. A complicating factor at days 2 and 3 could be some northerly shear associated with an upper-level ridge over northeastern Mexico, as indicated by the global models. Nonetheless Franklin should be near or at hurricane intensity by the time it makes landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. Little changes have been made to the track forecast from previous advisories. The steering environment remains fairly simple, and is dominated by a zonally-oriented ridge that should cause a west-northwestward to westward motion for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and leans slightly toward the ECMWF at the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.5N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 20.1N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 20.5N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/1200Z 20.8N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch" "Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 85.1W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will be near the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula by this evening. Franklin is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs this evening or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system moves across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by this evening. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch" NASA visible satellite: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&width=800&height=550&info=vis&zoom=1&lat=18&lon=-85 Belize Radar: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/observations/radar/radar-images Longer radar loop being created here at Flhurricane.com: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?258 |