Re: 00Z Euro Coming In
Posted by Gambit7 on 9/6/2017, 2:46 am
It'd be a nice run of the Euro if they'd manually re-initialize the storm to <900mb over the straights and then run the model.  A 30+mb difference would make the storm behave quite differently around the edge of that ridge, barring any ERC's and wobbles (which will definitely take place 3-days from now).

Something tells me that might be what NHC is partly assuming.  If I were them, I'd use the 3-day Euro with the 5-day GFS and split the differences.  That'd likely put Irma more so over Ragged Island rather than up into Long Island and a bit further along in its track.

Unfortunately, that brings it ashore dangerously close to Miami.  Not wishcasting, but that's the deal.  I highly doubt NHC adjust their track in the morning to send Irma over Bimini.  That's not happening.  Maybe they'll just make the probability bubble larger?
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00Z Euro Coming In - Gambit7, 9/6/2017, 2:06 am
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