2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 - 955 mb, 105 mph, NW at 10 mph, 33.6 N 76.0 W
Posted by cypresstx on 9/13/2018, 2:10 pm
broad wind field

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 57A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected distances in summary block.

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that Florence was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.0
West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in
forward speed, is expected through today. A turn toward the west-
northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected by
tonight and continuing into Friday, and a slow west-southwestward
motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and
South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of
southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across
portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through
Saturday night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the eye of
Florence reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A NOAA reporting
station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).
Weatherflow private observing stations in North Carolina recently
reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h) at Fort Macon, a sustained wind of 47 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) in Ocracoke, and a sustained wind of 45 mph
(72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h) in Pamlico Sound.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent data from
the aircraft remains at 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




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2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 - 955 mb, 105 mph, NW at 10 mph, 33.6 N 76.0 W - cypresstx, 9/13/2018, 2:10 pm
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