from HGX Discussion this morning
Posted by cypresstx on 10/4/2018, 11:14 am
Side Note: Some of the models are indicating an area of low pressure or tropical disturbance moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by mid next week. At this time, the track and direct impacts of this feature cannot be determined. Please continue to monitor your local NWS forecast. For more information refer to the TROPICS section below.

and

TROPICS...
The Canadian and European models develop an area of low pressure near the Yucatan early next week. Currently, upper level wind shear looks pretty strong but the shear is expected to lessen early next week and conditions could become more favorable for slow development. Where it eventually goes is a little too soon to tell, but a strong upper level trough over Texas into the central plains should force the system to the northeast and steering currents between the trough and an upper level high over the eastern US would favor the system moving north and then northeast toward AL/FL. Marine interests in the Gulf of Mexico should keep up with the latest forecast. 43


also, WPC 7-day Pressures & Fronts Loop: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html


from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast/enhanced_carib.php

Synopsis for Caribbean Sea and Tropical N Atlantic from 07N to
19N between 55W and 64W
1042 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A large cyclonic gyre will prevail over the western Caribbean through at least this weekend. Large NNE swell generated from Hurricane Leslie will continue to pass through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the end of the week before subsiding.
64
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ECMWF model ... Oct.12, 2018 ... Gulf of Mexico ? - AlligatorPointer, 10/4/2018, 3:34 am
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