Jeff Masters: cites Philippe Papin
Posted by cypresstx on 10/5/2018, 6:51 am
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Gulf-Mexico-Development-Possible-Next-Week-Updates-Sergio-Walaka-Kong-Rey-Leslie

just a snippet, whole blog at the link above

The broad circulation of the low makes it a good example of a Central American gyre (CAG)--a weak, sprawling cyclone that can deliver torrential rains and lead to catastrophic flooding. A gyre-analysis page from Philippe Papin (U.S. Naval Research Laboratory) shows that the circulation of this weeks CAG extends across Central America to the Pacific; Papin reported on Tuesday that the low satisfies the criteria for a Central American gyre that he and colleagues recently developed.

According to Papin, each year typically brings one or two of these gyres, most often in May-June or September-November. They tend to be more common when the active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is located in the Western Hemisphere, which is the case this week. Roughly 50 percent of Central American spawn a tropical depression or tropical storm, which tend to form on the eastern side of the gyre and rotate counterclockwise around the larger circulation.
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ECMWF model ... Oct.12, 2018 ... Gulf of Mexico ? - AlligatorPointer, 10/4/2018, 3:34 am
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