Invest 98L - Northwestern Bahamas
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/22/2019, 7:56 pm
As of 8pm EDT Thursday, a 30% chance in 48 hours, and a 50% chance in 5 days, of developing into a tropical depression or higher.



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts"

Atlantic Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Here is the 72-hour NHC surface forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

As of posting, it showed where the low might be positioned in 72 hours.



GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eus&pkg=mslp_uv850



Satellite:



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al982019

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?zoom=2&lat=27&lon=-79

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=13&length=12
From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=24.9,-78.3&zoom=6&timespan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=98L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-13-24-0-100-1

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=10307&y=5520

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=goeseastabiconus&product=11p20um
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Invest 98L - Northwestern Bahamas - Chris in Tampa, 8/22/2019, 7:56 pm
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