| Almost time for the 8pm EDT outlook. "Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores. 1. Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Beven" From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 SW Florida might see more rain from it, but that's uncertain. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf Old site: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml Most of the rain should be to the right of the center. If the center stays over water along the East Coast of the U.S., more of the rain should be offshore. However, there is already going to be rain ahead of it across the Carolinas, so flooding is definitely possible in some areas. How long it is around Florida, and it's exact track near/over parts of Florida, will be big in determining rain for the state. I honestly just don't think we'll see much development until it starts moving away from Florida. It could be called a depression while over Florida, but I just wouldn't be any more concerned from its winds here than I would be from a summer thunderstorm. US radar: https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us It's uncertain at what point it would be upraded to a depression or even named storm. Surface Forecasts from NHC: 24-hour: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif 48-hour: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW.gif 72-hour: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ The 24-hour surface forecast has a possible tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher) that seems to be over the Melbourne area hugging the coast. Then it continues over the water through 72-hour surface forecast image. It's not that far from the coast in that, so people need to watch it in the Carolinas. I think Florida it is more of a rain event, which we're used to in summertime storms. I don't know how close it might come to Cape Hatteras. By then it would have a chance to strengthen. Global models: GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=98&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1 Both have it offshore after being around/over Florida coast all the way up the East Coast. It's Newfoundland, perhaps even Nova Scotia, that I think has the greatest chance of impacts in my opinion based on the models. Rip currents are a threat all along the East Coast. People in the water and boaters should be careful. Heavy rain that might cause flooding is a risk, probably greatest in the Carolinas. We got a lot of rain in the Tampa area about a week ago and there was localized flooding in some areas. I don't know about the rest of Florida, like the east coast of the state, but when this region gets a lot of rain flooding can be an issue in some rivers. Canada seems like the most at threat of a direct impact in my opinion, thinking more about wind. (not sure how surge impacts them) But it wouldn't take too much of a shift where Cape Hatteras could see more of an impact. The stronger wind should be on the right side of the storm's forward movement and if it stays over water along the U.S. East Coast then they would not get the stronger wind unless it made some kind of landfall. If you look at the storm specific models though, it's positive that at least at the moment, they are offshore from the U.S. after being around Florida. (Climatology models don't really take into account future current steering I think, so I don't pay much attention to those. TCLP, OCD5 and CLP5 in the HurricaneCity model plots) Here is a look at the SHIPS intensity output as of 2pm EDT Friday.
From bottom of this folder: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ The track listed for that particular SHIPS output is "OFPI", which is the National Hurricane Center (NHC) provisional forecast in ATCF system (Interpolated 06 hours). I'm not exactly sure what the OFPI is. (maybe a track they made but just didn't make public?) However, that was not among the models released at 2pm EDT and the latitude and longitude of the track in that text product are not included past the initial coordinates. The previous 8am EDT SHIPS output had a track from TABM and that track was available. |