This one is going to be uncertain long term. I don't know if it is shear, land interaction and/or dry air that has some of the models not developing it further at some point in the Eastern or Central Caribbean. But first it's the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that need to be prepared for a hurricane. Shear is forecast by the SHIPS intensity model to be low for the next 3 days. Around day 4 or 5 it is forecast to increase. After that is a big question for future possible impacts beyond the Eastern Caribbean, if any. I don't know if we'll have a better idea until it gets to the Caribbean. This part of the discussion is worth reading: "The moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has been hindering development of this system for the past several days is forecast to diminish significantly during the next 12 h, and remain near 5 kt through Tuesday. The low shear conditions, along with warm SSTs and the significantly improved small, inner-core structure, should allow for at least slow but steady strengthening despite the abundance of dry mid-level air nearby. However, the low vertical wind shear and tight inner-core wind field are also harbingers of possible rapid intensification. For now, the new intensity forecast remains conservative and similar to the previous advisory, and is above all of the available intensity guidance, including the HWRF model." From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/ If you look at the SHIPS intensity model, there is a 33% chance of a 65kt increase in winds over 72 hours. I don't recall how that has been in other storms, but people in the Eastern Caribbean should be aware of the possibility. The NHC says there is an "abundance of dry mid-level air nearby" but they don't seem to be thinking that will hurt it too much. I guess because the models still intensify it. Shear: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time= 24hr Shear Tendency: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time= Dry air: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= This is from 2pm EDT. Another one comes out shortly, sometime after 8pm EDT but should be before 9pm EDT. ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST From bottom of this folder: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850 Storm specific models: http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2019&storm=05&display=google_map&latestrun=1 I think it's too early to look to where it might go long term, but here is the GFS ensemble members for those that really want to look into that now: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL052019 From: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/ http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al052019 Model products on that site: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm_model_data.asp?storm_identifier=al052019 http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?zoom=2&lat=14&lon=-58 From: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center=15,-57&zoom=6×pan=-6h&products=globalwv.-100,global1kmvis.-100,globalir.-100,globalir-bd.-100,globalir-funk.-100,globalir-ott.-100,globalir-nhc.-100,globalwv-grad.-100,globalvis.-100,globalir-avn.65&timeproduct=globalir-avn http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 From: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-13-24-0-100-1 https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=14535&y=8134 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir From: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/ https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.FIVE&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc19/ATL/05L.FIVE/ir/geo/1km&PROD=ir From: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Mesoscale floater 2 (which it is currently on, meaning one minute imagery): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_index.php Then select which one it is out of usually the top two listed. https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND16.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND15.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND14.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-B13-CYAN.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND13-GRAD.90,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND13.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND12.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND11.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND10.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND09-VAPR.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND09.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND08.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND07-FIRE.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND07.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND06.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND05.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND04.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND03.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND02.-100,G16-ABI-MESO2-BAND01.-100¢er=12,-46&zoom=6&width=1185&height=706&basemap=bw&labels=line&view=leaflet https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-24-0-100-1 https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/sportPublishData.pl?dataset=goeseastabimesoscale2&product=10p35um https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/#meso The SLIDER product has mesoscale imagery too, but at the moment it is not showing the storm like it should, instead having outdated imagery from a prior floater position over 98L: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=1000&y=1000 This SSEC site also usually has mesoscale imagery, but doesn't at the moment for this storm on this mesoscale floater: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=goes-east&end_datetime=latest&n_images=1&coverage=meso2&channel=13&image_quality=gif&anim_method=javascript |