Re: Dorian at 11pm AST Tuesday: 50mph; 1006mb; NW at 13mph
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/28/2019, 12:49 am
For your area though, that kind of track would be better than had the storm not gone across the state first. The Big Bend area of Florida would probably get some surge, but it would be very different than if the storm came up the west side of the state. (which of course can't be ruled out, though that's not where the models are focusing on right now)
Once Dorian develops a more well defined inner core, which might actually be starting now, and we see how land interaction will go around Puerto Rico, things will hopefully become a little clearer as for possible Bahamas and Southeast U.S. impacts. The storm has not been well organized up until now and I would think that makes the models even more uncertain. That and simply further out in time where the models get less and less accurate the longer out in the forecast you go.
Maybe in 24 to 36 hours things will be a bit clearer.
Since Dorian does appear to be strengthening some, it's a good reminder that Puerto Rico is under a hurricane watch.
As of 11pm that meant:
"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours." |
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