Re: 00z Runs in
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2019, 6:23 am
In this particular case it could be more accurate.

It's just that the Canadian model isn't usually among the top best performing global models for tropical cyclone tracks. It doesn't mean it isn't sometimes good, so no one should discount it in this case.

This is something old from Jeff Masters:

"As usual, in 2017 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were better than those of any individual computer model at all forecast time periods, although the European Center (ECMWF) model was very close in accuracy to the official forecast. The UKMET model made a big jump in accuracy compared to its performance in 2014 - 2016, and was the second-best model in 2017. NOAAs GFS model, which had been very close to the European model in accuracy from 2014 2016, fell into the third tier, with an accuracy similar to that of the HWRF and CMC (Canadian) models."

From: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/nhc-track-forecasts-best-ever-2017-no-improvement-intensity-forecasts

People on most of the east coast of Florida need to prepare for this storm. At this point, time is running out in some places. This turn is going too happen too close to Florida to know one way or the other in some areas whether there will be less, some or catastrophic impact from this storm. The Carolinas and even Georgia have more time to watch the models. Some in Florida are about out of time. People need to make the safe choice and evacuate if instructed.
135
In this thread:
00z Runs in - Gambit7, 9/1/2019, 1:30 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.