| same Bobbi - yes, watching from TX (& reading your blog/twitter) - we really don't need one more thing :( https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc#Amanda BULLETIN Tropical Storm Amanda Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020 700 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020 ...AMANDA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 90.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador * Entire coast of Guatemala Interests in southern Mexico and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was located inland over southeastern Guatemala near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Amanda is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward or northward motion is expected through this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Amanda will move farther inland over Guatemala today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin this morning while the center moves farther inland. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate over the mountains of Central America later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda or its remnants are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz. This system is also expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize, and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the warning area during the next few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/311205_MIATWOAT.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/311025_MIATWDAT.shtml? Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is moving onshore into eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with the northern portion of the tropical wave reaching the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will merge into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre later this morning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to the coast of Brazil near 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N-08N between 21W- 25W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-03S east of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days. A cold front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, on the periphery of the Central American Gyre developing over the region to the south. The surface trough and thunderstorm activity are enhanced by a well developed upper low is centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley. A recent scatterometer pass indicated NE to E winds around 20 to 25 kt over much of the southwest Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle to light winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the weak cold front moving into the northeast Gulf will stall over the southeastern Gulf by early Tue and dissipate through mid week. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest Gulf early in the week as the Central American Gyre persists over southeast Mexico and northern Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days. A tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean, and will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American Gyre later today. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through mid week as the Central American Gyre deepens. Farther east, the Bermuda High rebuilds to north of the basin maintaining fresh tradewinds off Colombia through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W. A surface trough reaches from near 27N70W through the southern Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered thunderstorms are active near the northern end of the surface trough. A mid to upper level trough is moving off the Georgia and Carolina coasts into the western Atlantic, supporting scattered thunderstorms from 30N to 31N between 77W and 79W. Moderate SW winds are active in this area as well, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 32N59W. Thunderstorm activity near this feature has completely dissipated over the past six hours. Generally light winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist over open waters west of 55W. The cold front will move inot the area through late today, will reach from Bermuda to South Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh trade winds by mid week south of 22N off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther east, high pressure covers the Atlantic waters north of 20N. This is supporting moderate to fresh trades farther south over the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas. $$ Christensen |