Now Hanna
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/23/2020, 11:52 pm
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents







Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

The system continues to organize with curved bands becoming
better established around the center. The cyclone certainly has
the appearance of a tropical storm, and just minutes ago the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters found winds to support upgrading the system to a
35-kt tropical storm. Data from the aircraft also show that the
minimum pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, indicating that the system
is on a developing trend.

Hanna is moving fairly slowly to the west-northwest, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/6 kt. This
west-northwest motion should continue on Friday, but a turn to the
west is expected by Friday night as a subtropical ridge strengthens
to the north of the cyclone. This steering flow should take the
center of the storm across the southern Texas coast in 36 to 48
hours. After landfall, the storm is forecast to turn south of west
across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico. The models have
shifted southward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has
been adjusted in that direction.

Additional strengthening seems quite likely until the storm makes
landfall since it is expected to remain over the very warm Gulf of
Mexico waters and in generally low wind shear conditions. After
landfall, steady weakening should commence, and the cyclone should
dissipate over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico in about 4
days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous one
and at the high end of the guidance given the system's well
organized structure and favorable environment.

Due to the southward shift in the track forecast, the tropical
storm warning has been extended southward from Port Mansfield to
the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

Tropical Storm Hanna is the earliest 8th storm on record. The
previous record was in 2005 when Harvey formed on August 3rd.


Key Messages

1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to
bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of
Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could
result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.2N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 26.6N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 27.1N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 27.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi







Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Corrected headline

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE GULF DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM HANNA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 91.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward from Port
Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Warnings may
be required for portions of the Watch area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 91.4 West. Hanna is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the
storm is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected until the system makes
landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Monday along the Gulf
Coast of the United States from Louisiana to south Texas, and inland
to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern
Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash
flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to
moderate river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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