Re: the part that worries me
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/25/2020, 6:46 am
Having more uncertainty than normal in the track is really difficult this close to landfall. Especially during a pandemic. It's going to likely require more areas along the coast to evacuate because of the uncertainty, but this is a short time frame considering there is the pandemic too. Emergency operations centers are going to have to make some tough decisions, but given this is likely to become a major hurricane, they are going to have to issue mandatory evacuation orders along the coast. (I don't know if any have yet) With Marco EOCs could take a chance, you can't take that with a storm like this. It has two days over open water and the core continues to organize better.
NHC discussions are so important. People should be preparing further west too just as much as where the current track is. (and east too, people shouldn't take chances, they need to pay close attention) When the cone is kind of straight at the coast like it is due to the north movement forecast at landfall, it might make people in the areas just to the west, and east too, of the cone feel like they are safer out of the cone, but given the uncertainty, they need to be preparing. If it were coming in at an angle more of the coast would be in the cone. It makes it seem like there is more certainty with the cone shaped the way it is at the angle it is, but it has nothing to do with current uncertainty in the models.
As a reminder for people, what the cone is:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
"Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."
Of course that is the center point remaining in the cone, effects are felt well away from the center. |
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