Re: 95L ---> Zeta?
Posted by Beachlover on 10/25/2020, 1:00 am
AP, I totally get it as to being numb. I pretty much feel the same way. Told my husband tonight "I ain't going anywhere" - am not even going to make hotel reservations. I'm just staying put no matter what. If we made it through Sally we can make it through this, as much as I dread it.

I do have to say it seems very unusual to me so early in the life of a T.D. that the cone of uncertainty would've narrowed SO much between the 5 p.m. and the 11 p.m. tonight -- to where, for instance, the eastern edge of the cone moved from basically Apalachicola all the way west to just east of Pensacola's East Bay. It also makes no sense to me that the 5 p.m. appeared to indicat landfall sometime Thursday, and now -- even though the Discussion says the cyclone has become stationary -- the graphic shows the storm well inland by 8 p.m. Wednesday night.

Further, I'm also confused by the DIscussion's statement that the intensity has been increased through "about 60 hours," when in fact it was increased through 72 hours, which seems to belie the continued holding that the storm will weaken before landfall. I don't see that.

Of course when a forecaster writes in his 11 p.m. Discussion that (emphasis mine), "...the subtropical ridge will expand westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion," I start to lose faith.

Call me picky, but precision is crucial, seems to me.
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95L ---> Zeta? - AlligatorPointer, 10/23/2020, 11:25 am
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