80% in 48 hours / 90% in 5 days as of 8 PM EDT Friday
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/30/2020, 8:58 pm
It was doing some of that yesterday too. On a local news station here in Tampa earlier this afternoon one of the meteorologists said something like the US didn't need to worry about this. I forget how they put it, but when I heard it I thought they must not have seen the run where it hit Florida yesterday. It has had some weird runs lately. It continues with this likely storm. So far I take it all to mean it just needs to be watched. With some of the runs of the GFS with this storm they are hard to follow. Sometimes you can track one storm and sometimes I'm not so sure something else doesn't form from the same area and it's not the same storm. Too confusing.
Bring on the cooler weather. The temperature was already in the 60s here at 8pm. Considering we have been setting records in the low 90s occasionally here, this is nice! And I want the water to cool, though as the last storm showed when it strengthened up to landfall, water temperature isn't everything. We'll all have to be watching until December.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive
for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC
islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Beven |
37
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