Invest 97L could develop into a depression during the next few days
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 6/29/2021, 9:23 pm
As of posting, it is midway between Africa and Windward Islands.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 29 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20
mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur as the tropical wave moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser
Antilles on Wednesday and then across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this
system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
I like to look at the GFS ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs
More zoomed in on Contiguous U.S. Atlantic coast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=lowlocs
This could go anywhere still if it develops. It's too early to know where. It's a reminder that if you haven't prepared at all for this year's hurricane season, now is a good time. It needs to be watched. Maybe avoid the parts of social media that are saying too much more than that this early.
Storm specific satellite imagery and models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2021&storm=97&latestinvest=1
Satellite view of entire Atlantic:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=taw&band=13&length=24
Nasa imagery:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband13&lat=12&lon=-52&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=800&height=400&zoom=2&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&palette=ir2.pal
Created from: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&numframes=15&width=800&height=400&info=band13&zoom=2&palette=&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&lat=12&lon=-52&sat_type=automatic
At the moment, only appears as a wave on the NHC's 72 hour surface forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/
That will likely change.
Recon is possible for July 2nd.
NOUS42 KNHC 291609
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT TUE 29 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z JULY 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-029
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM
PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM
PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
From: https://nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
SHIPS intensity text output:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
Latest file for 97L as of posting from 18Z. New one for 0Z should be out soon, but here is the 18Z one:
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972021 06/29/21 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 72 73 77 80 82
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 70 71 71 75 61
V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 54 58 59 60 61 54 64 65 69 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 16 13 7 12 12 7 12 8 8 12 18 13 12 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 2 6 10 12 4 4 2 2 -1 7 0 1
SHEAR DIR 39 34 35 33 33 26 18 316 327 291 299 311 305 306 333 319 323
SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.1 27.8 28.0 28.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 134 135 136 131 135 130 138 140 144 162 160 164 161 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 134 135 136 131 135 130 138 140 144 161 154 154 149 139
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8
700-500 MB RH 81 83 82 81 79 74 66 68 67 67 63 57 57 57 63 66 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 18 20 21 20 20 20 19 18 15 14 12 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 66 72 73 92 74 62 59 48 29 31 8 -4 -1 -18 -9
200 MB DIV 46 70 63 47 34 56 52 15 7 10 59 46 33 12 30 18 14
700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -7 -5 2 0 0 7 0 12 0 8 -5 -5 -5 -2
LAND (KM) 1290 1253 1238 1205 1100 831 660 617 327 367 248 80 4 17 62 22 16
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 15.7 17.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.5 39.1 40.7 42.4 45.9 49.8 54.1 58.7 63.1 67.2 70.7 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 19 21 23 23 22 20 18 15 13 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 7 10 25 20 25 33 29 28 21 34 37 78 50 77
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -3. -7. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 29. 36. 40. 43. 42. 43. 45. 47. 48. 52. 55. 57.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 36.0
** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.8% 8.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.2% 14.8% 6.5% 2.2% 1.3% 6.2% 10.2% 10.2%
Bayesian: 1.7% 15.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 6.4% 3.2% 2.6%
Consensus: 3.4% 14.6% 6.3% 3.3% 0.5% 4.2% 7.8% 4.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/29/2021 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 70 71 71 75 61
18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 41 50 57 61 64 63 64 66 66 67 67 71 57
12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 33 42 49 53 56 55 56 58 58 59 59 63 49
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 30 37 41 44 43 44 46 46 47 47 51 37
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
Shear isn't forecast to be high over the next 7 days.
Here is a look at the current analyzed shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Shallow steering (for a weak tropical storm):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time |
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Invest 97L could develop into a depression during the next few days - Chris in Tampa, 6/29/2021, 9:23 pm Post A Reply
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