I was thinking yesterday about taking a look at what that track prediction was when I remembered that area of Florida being noted in his track prediction and forgot to look back at what he had. You could hardly get closer to what the GFS has been showing. Who knows what will happen in the end, but for now it really is amazing the GFS has been showing a track like that. In late June / early July too.
GFS ensemble (technically called Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) now but I like using the old name) members still cover basically any scenario:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=atl&pkg=lowlocs
And if they don't, Euro covers the more northern tracks.
We don't see too many systems with so much uncertainty within the 5 day timeframe. Even three day. Both track and intensity. Lots of rain incoming which will be a dangerous aspect to a lot of areas in the Carib regardless of wind intensity. Recon gets in there tomorrow and I'd like to see some data from that get into the models. And we get to see how well the storm is organized. Satellite wind speed and direction estimates are good too, but I really like to see recon data.
Upcoming recon:
NOUS42 KNHC 301605
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EDT WED 30 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JULY 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-030
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/0715Z
D. 12.7N 58.9W
E. 02/1130Z TO 02/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FEET
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION NEAR
13.5N 61.5W FOR 02/1800Z, DEPARTING TNCA AT 02/1400Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR THE 03/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 02/1730Z.
C. BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES AT 02/2330Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOUS42 KNHC 011605
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1205 PM EDT THU 01 JULY 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JULY 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-031
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ELSA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 02/1730Z A. 03/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0205A ELSA B. NOAA9 0305A ELSA
C. 02/1400Z C. 02/1730Z
D. 13.3N 62.4W D. NA
E. 02/1530Z TO 02/1930Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73
A. 02/2330Z A. 03/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ELSA B. AFXXX 0505A ELSA
C. 02/1950Z C. 03/0830Z
D. 14.1N 64.9W D. 15.9N 69.8W
E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6 HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. A NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO ELSA,
DEPARTING TNCA AT 03/1500Z.
C. ANOTHER NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
ELSA FOR THE 04/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 03/1730Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Recon Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
NOAA departing from Aruba it seems. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Beatrix_International_Airport)
Air Force I would assume departs from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. |