Re: Is Texas gulf coast likely to get a big storm at the end of August?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2021, 4:38 pm
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
NHC is now monitoring three different areas with a 40% chance of development over 5 days as of 2pm EDT Monday. Click the link for the graphic.




Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New
England.

1. A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive
ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual development
will be possible through the end of the week while the system moves
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Another area of disturbed weather has developed in association with
a low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
more than 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
slow development will be possible over the next several days while
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around to
15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Stewart






Right now the one in the Caribbean isn't an invest yet. The other two in the Atlantic are. (97L and 98L) They both have a 10% chance in 48 hours and the one in Carib has a 0% chance in 48 hours.

Storm specific models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/
And you can see the positions of the invests. Eventually the other will likely be an invest.

The GFS shows the system you are talking about too, at least I think they are both the same, only it takes it into Mexico.

Vorticity for the global models to try to see the origins better:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort

These both look like they are probably the area the NHC currently has an X for in the Carib. The formation area they have drawn is in the western Carib.

I don't know if the tropical wave they are following now develops a low or if it combines with something already in the SW Carib as noted in surface forecasts.

Surface forecasts:

24hr:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif

48hr:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc48_latestBW_sm3.gif

72hr:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

From Surface Forecasts on this page:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

There is a low already in the SW Carib, away from the wave where they draw the X in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. For the 72 hour image they don't have anything developing into a possible tropical cyclone yet in that area.

It's about 7 to 8 days out until the area could make a possible landfall in Mexico or Texas based on those two global models. It has to come across the Yucatan. GFS develops it a little more perhaps before the Yucatan. Euro seems to develop it more much later, more into the northern Gulf. GFS keeps it low in latitude right now, keeping it mostly in the Bay of Campeche like Grace was.

Since it hasn't developed yet, there's a whole lot of uncertainty with this one I think. We need to see where it will develop and then see what happens when those two global models have a forecast that is closer to each other. We need to keep an eye on it and the NHC is too of course.

The GFS forecasts an increase in activity across the basin again. Statistical peak is September 10th and we could see multiple storms between now and then.

Upcoming names:

Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
48
In this thread:
Is Texas gulf coast likely to get a big storm at the end of August? - AlligatorPointer, 8/23/2021, 3:54 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.