50% chance of development within 5 days as of 8pm EDT Monday
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2021, 9:20 pm
When looking at vorticity on that site it might look more intense. I like to use vorticity for weaker areas since it might show the rotation and the MSLP imagery might not show a low. For that site, also view MSLP imagery of some type to see the mean sea level pressure.
On a future run this might no longer show up because it is focused on Texas:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=scus&pkg=mslp_uv850
Zoomed out to entire Carib:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Pressure at landfall looks to be 985 or 986mb for 12Z Euro. Too early to focus on that kind of thing as well as the landfall location, but just showing that it is not as intense as it looks in that run. (doesn't mean it won't be more intense, just pointing out difference in what it looks like on vorticity)
I like to refer to this Dvorak Current Intensity Chart:
https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
To get a rough idea of what the wind might be based on the pressure. It doesn't apply to all storms. Some storms might be in an overall lower pressure environment, but it's a rough guide. But using that, it could be a 75 to 80mph hurricane for that run if that site has derived the lowest pressure at the center.
As for GFS at 18Z, it has about 986mb for second Mexican landfall:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Here are the GFS Ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs
With most into Mexico and a couple into or very near to Texas. Keep an eye on whether more switch to Texas or if they stay mostly in Mexico.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New
England.
1. A broad low pressure area is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 800
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is
expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally
conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual
development is possible through the end of the week while the system
moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by
late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3. A low pressure area over the far eastern tropical Atlantic about 500
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Forecaster Pasch
Still no invest with it yet:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/
But the other two are low pressure areas and this one is still called a wave and a low pressure area is forecast to develop "by late week". So it might be some time before we see an invest.
But you don't have to wait for the GFS ensembles to be available with an invest, you can see that link above at Tropical Tidbits.
Satellite for Carib:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24
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