Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized. A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.

The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt. This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower, with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future track refinements.

Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.

Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches and warnings are likely later today.