Model for Tampa's surge
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/26/2024, 4:20 am
Model forecast for NOAA's tides in Tampa Bay:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_mapplots.html?ofsregion=tb&subdomain=0&model_type=wl_forecast
It's hour by hour. Good guide for the timing. It's based on MLLW datum.

Every datum is different.

For Old Port Tampa the datum is:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/datums.html?id=8726607

The values for MHHW, for what the NHC uses, subtract 2.48 feet for that particular station.

For Clearwater Beach, you would subtract 2.74 to get MHHW for what the NHC uses:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/datums.html?id=8726724

Confusing.

Datums for various stations:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stations.html?type=Datums
Or once you click a station here:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Helene
And then go the "Station Home Page" when you click a station icon and a popup appears. Then it is at bottom of page on the left side under Datums.



Although I don't like that model. At 3:30am I downloaded the images. At 4am now I see it has updated to be quite a bit more than it was.

Sometimes after midnight, from 1am to 3am EDT, it has greater than 10 feet. It doesn't have a scale color past that.

10 feet - 2.48 = Greater than 7.52 feet.

Within the range of the NHC's 5 to 8 feet or maybe higher since it is greater than. And that doesn't include waves. That's at least a foot of water in my garage or more, if it were completely accurate, again not including waves. And a few inches in my house.
1
In this thread:
10pm CDT Wed on Helene: 85mph; 972mb; N at 9mph; Expected to bring catastrophic winds & surge to NE Gulf coast - Chris in Tampa, 9/25/2024, 11:23 pm
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