A neighbor emailed me and asked if this one was coming our way. I kind of kept it general. Email below. Still catching up on stuff around the house and world news. Saw post about approximate pressure to wind relationship. I usually look at this for that: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/CI-chart.html And use pressures from Tropical Tidbits. Very approximate probably, depends on storm, but it gives an idea.
I saw that when I got the power back on. It seems likely a storm will enter the Gulf, but the strength and path are really uncertain yet.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) is covering it here until it develops:
Then they will write advisories when it either forms or it is close enough to land then they will initiate advisories as a potential tropical cyclone if it is not yet well developed enough to be classified as a tropical depression or higher.
Until something develops more, there is usually more uncertainty in the path and intensity. The further out in time, the more uncertainty too. Models from run to run can shift wildly. One run of the American model, the GFS showed the storm headed our way and another run was in Pensacola. One run yesterday was around New Orleans. European model doesn't develop it as much yet, but it's early so that doesn't mean much yet. Unfortunately we just have to watch it.
Models shift a lot. It's never a good idea to look at just one or just one run. At this point the takeaway is that there could be a storm that could impact parts of the Gulf coast, but it's not a guarantee that it will develop.
Now that I have power back I will be watching closely.