| A neighbor emailed me again a little bit ago so I typed this up for them. I didn't get into the ensembles, but they are all over the place right now and most are generally weaker. GFS ensemble members https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs Euro ensemble members: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=watl&pkg=lowlocs But it's too early to know anything yet. Too far out. But I typed the below. Got up to check the models and turn the dehumidifiers on again since it was pouring down rain outside for a few minutes. (Humidity just gets into my house normally, so best not to add to it for a few days even though the carpet doesn't feel wet any more.) --- I was just checking the models on it now. Latest runs of the two global models people look most at, GFS (American global model) and Euro (European global model), have it as a moderate tropical storm or less in recent runs. That is always subject to change, especially that far out in time, but current and recent runs don't indicate anything like what we just had. (or any run I've seen) Last run with it as a hurricane in the GFS model was at 8pm on Sunday (29th), but it's best to not put too much weight on what a model says the intensity might be this far out, whether stronger or weaker. What we just experienced might have been the highest surge our area has seen since 1921. (I haven't looked into that more yet) It truly was historic. The movement of what might develop is erratic in those models, I assume weak steering currents, so there's no indication where it might go other than somewhere along the northern or eastern Gulf coasts most likely. Canadian global model (not used quite as much I think) has a category one hurricane, but it has bounced around in runs from little development to that. (that had landfall on October 11th) That's just too far out there in time to put much weight into a forecast from a model. And you always want to look at multiple models over multiple runs rather than looking at just one model or just one run. It's kind of hard to track where some of the models think the low pressure will be in some runs of the global models, which means it is too weak to really follow as of now in some of the models. In current GFS run something might make landfall along the Gulf coast on October 14th. It's not even clear that it would be a depression in that run. It's not clear that's even what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) might be talking about now. It's so weak in that run that low pressure tries to form in various places in the Gulf from disturbed weather. Looking that far out in time is really just not much more than a crystal ball when trying to figure out where the low will develop exactly, if it does, how strong it can get and where it's going. We'll just have to keep watching. But so far, nothing like some of the model runs we had with Helene long before it ever developed. Right now the area in the southwest Carib is just a trough of low pressure. The NHC lowered the chances of development slightly over the next 7 days, from 50% to 40%, but that is just over that period. Development could just be a little more delayed potentially. There are other things I like to look at, but being it's so far out in time there is no clear picture of where the path might be, if it develops, and intensity can be even harder to forecast. But at least right now things indicate something weaker, perhaps much weaker. But as always, we have to watch. |