WTNT34 KNHC 061518 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Corrected for Motion description in the outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is
forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across
the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a
major hurricane late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake