BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 93.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near
7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight. An
eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of
Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next
couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch