Re: I'm boarding up
Posted by Gianmarc on 10/7/2024, 4:20 am
Having lived in the Tampa Bay area for the better part of the past 20 years and driven across the state through Arcadia many, many times, what I know of Arcadia's proximity to areas vulnerable to a direct hit from Milton on FL's west coast leads me to believe Arcadia will experience hurricane-force winds of Cat 1 intensity with Cat 2-level gusts here and there.

There may be a deceptive belief that the wind field will be "narrow" as I have seen others post here, but I am struck in particular by the NHC's repeated observation that the storm's size, and therefore its wind field, likely will expand when the affects of shear take it down a notch in intensity.

We have seen that double-edged sword many times over the years. A storm weakens around landfall, great, but that also causes its wind field to expand in response.

Which is why I think the safe call in Arcadia given relative consistency in the MHC's forecast track between Tampa and Sarasota would be to expect a Cat 1/Cat 2 experience there.
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I'm boarding up - Chris in Tampa, 10/5/2024, 11:39 am
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