| Forecast to be named Nadine before landfall in Belize. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of Belize and Mexico. Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL152024 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al152024 Central America wide view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=cam Belize Radar: https://nms.gov.bz/sensors/radar-imagery/ Not close enough to Mexico's radars: https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/en/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before dissipating on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the border with Belize northward to Tulum. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City to Tulum A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to turn westward tonight before reaching land tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and it could become a tropical cyclone before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |