Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as Cancun. The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 87.1W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.1 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize late this morning or around midday, and then continue across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) north of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Cancun, Mexico, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |