80% in 48 hours / 90% in 7 days now
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/3/2024, 6:26 am
Models seem to develop it and impact western Cuba. After that, into the Gulf, and anywhere from parts of Florida to as far west as Texas. (and some take it near Key West too even if it does end up further west later on) Still very uncertain long term.
Recon scheduled for today.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
025 PM EDT SAT 02 NOVEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-155 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN - AL97)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 03/1800Z A. 04/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 03/1330Z C. 04/0530Z
D. 13.8N 76.3W D. 15.2N 75.8W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2030Z E. 04/0500Z TO 05/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST (CORR) G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73 (CORRECTED)
A. 04/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 04/1130Z
D. 16.4N 76.1W
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
NOTE: THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
From the Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
The SHIPS text output is a bit confusing. It doesn't give coordinates along the path in the text output:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/24110306AL9724_ships.txt
I thought that would mean it is too weak, but it gives forecast wind. There is a path in the ATCF model data from the NHC too. It shows shear low now, but increasing later. But given I don't know exactly where that path is, don't know if it is reliable. And it could change anyway. I was also looking at SSTs and heat content.
For SSTs, I was also looking here:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/
I didn't realize when you select "Water Temperature" on that map it shows the data everywhere without needing to click. It seems only parts of Texas has water temps around the coast above 80F.
One station in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico is at 81F. (Station 42001) Map:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
It's nice that water temps are cooler than they were. Hopefully some shear will be around closer to any landfall along the Gulf coast. |
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