| Ships should already be avoiding it hopefully, so the increase for now shouldn't be an issue. (other than rip currents) Still not clear it will ever make a final landfall along the Gulf coast somewhere. Shear and dry air could prevent it, though southern movement later would likely give it a better chance at making landfall with less of those. It's just going to be hanging out in the middle of the Gulf for a bit being weird, in that this doesn't happen like this much. NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL182024 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/18L/18L_floater.html And lots of other data: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al182024 Hurricane Rafael Special Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite imagery this morning depicts that Rafael continues to wrap deep convection around the center of the system, with cold cloud tops near -85 C. GLM satellite data shows lightning is occuring in the eastern eyewall. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have continued to rise from the previous advisory and range from 100 to 115 kt. Given the improved satellite depiction and these estimates the current intensity is raised to 105 kt, which required the special advisory. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. The initial motion is 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. There were no changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperature, which has allowed the current intensification to occur. Additional strengthening is possible today, and the latest NHC forecast was adjusted in the short term through 36 h given the current higher intensity. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and lies near the consensus aids beyond 48 h. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0600Z 24.7N 87.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly |