Re: Major Hurricane Rafael - 3:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8: W at 9 mph: 956 mb: 120 mph - now he's just messin' with us...
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/8/2024, 5:29 am
The "Ensemble Track Ellipses" are all over the place:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm_model_data.asp?storm_identifier=al182024
For the ensemble members for the Euro and GFS.
At least most things keep it a tropical storm for a landfall, if it makes one. It really is getting nuts, with some models just having it hanging out, maybe doing a loop in the middle of the Gulf. At least it is not threatening anyone at the moment, other than rip currents. But the NHC must hate storms like this. It's frustrating. Any particular model run right now is meaningless, but the GFS does a big loop, somewhat close to the northern Gulf coast, and then drops south to hit the Yucatan. Might not even be a tropical storm at the end of that. Just one of the many wide variety of runs the models have been going with. I'm glad steering isn't this uncertain usually during the peak of hurricane season. I can't imagine having a major hurricane that was likely to actually impact someone at that intensity just doing what this one is.
But still, it's not great having one out there that all of a sudden is a major hurricane again. I like fronts this time of year, but I'm happy with none at the moment.
I'm ready for the part of the season where I don't look at each run of the models. I guess for this season that might be the Christmas season, because the basin refuses to quit. |
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