3am CST Saturday on Sara: 45mph; 999mb; Stationary
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/16/2024, 5:47 am
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents

Friday at 12pm CST the movement was 2mph.
Friday at 9pm CST the movement was stationary.

The only slight positive is that land seems to have at least reduced the convection over some areas of the storm. However, some areas to the west have had a band trained in very close to the same region. They are getting a lot.

Yesterday the isolated amount forecast was increased to possibly 35 inches.



Radar from Belize:
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
Which is kind of far away.

Satellite floaters:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL192024
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/floaters/19L/19L_floater.html
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al192024

For a longer loop, you can use the SLIDER display:
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
Although I was having some issues loading a longer loop, so I gave up.

So I went here for last 24 hours:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-13-24-1-100-12&checked=map&colorbar=data

Last 48 hours:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-13-48-0-100-12&checked=map&colorbar=data

Did the selecting "12n" frame interval. That seems to be every 12th frame, which works out to one frame per hour.







Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the
center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and
the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less
organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The
ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of
convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on
this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should
strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is
forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the
west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center
over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or
its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the
southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in
strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when
the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken
after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that
it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of
Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the
intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global
models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could
interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the
northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week.

The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be
catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already
suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast
and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara
will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides
over northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will
cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of
Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the
Honduras-Guatemala border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras
* The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala
* The coast of Belize
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is
currently nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is
forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the
west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move
near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so
before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during
the day on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is
possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with
weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate
Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25
inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain
with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This
will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along
with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara
crosses the coast of Belize.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




It's nice on Bluesky that you can search and not be logged in:
https://bsky.app/
On wide page on desktop, search is in the upper right corner.

Although, now that I try it logged out, it's buggy if you get to the bottom of the search results. When logged in it keeps loading more. When logged out it takes me back to the top. Probably a bug.
1
In this thread:
3am CST Saturday on Sara: 45mph; 999mb; Stationary - Chris in Tampa, 11/16/2024, 5:47 am
Post A Reply
More HTML
Add Image (Tutorial)
Embed Video or other Social Media
This feature works for YouTube (videos), X (formerly Twitter) (tweets), Facebook (posts, photos and videos), Instagram (posts and videos), Threads (posts), Bluesky (posts), Imgur (images and videos) and NHC Audio Briefings (mp3 files).

X (formerly Twitter) Options:
In our testing, you can't post an Instagram and Threads post in the same message. One of the site's embeds will not load.

Due to how Bluesky content must be embedded to do it automatically, technical errors may sometimes make it impossible to automatically embed it for you. If you have any issues, turn that option off and embed the content manually if you wish to do so.
Add Emoji
 Smile
 Happy
 Cool
 Grin
 Tongue
 Surprised
 Sleepy
 Drool
 Confused
 Mad
 Sad
 Cry
Automatic Options