Re: Latest HAFS-A run has Sara Florida landfall as Hurricane
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/16/2024, 10:56 pm
It's back to around a tropical storm/depression in latest run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa-p®ion=19L&pkg=mslp_wind
I don't think those models (HAFS-A and HAFS-B) handle something weak very well.
The good news is that I don't see any models at the moment show it being a hurricane.
https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&storm=19&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
A lot show it simply ending. It might enhance the front some with more rain and severe weather. The NHC has talked about it remnants interacting with a front. In the 3pm CST Saturday NHC discussion they talked about how disrupted it has been due to the mountainous terrain nearby, despite being offshore.
In the 9pm CST discussion they don't even talk about its remnants, they just talk about it dissipating over the Yucatan.
At the moment, the 16 day GFS and 15 day Euro don't show anything. So, we might end the official season with no more named storms perhaps. Too early to say, but we might. Since the water has been so warm down in the Carib, I wouldn't rule out anything, even into December, if other aspects come together for something to form. But the more serious threats further north than the Carib, at least in terms of wind (like a major hurricane for example), I think are winding down now. We're getting a stretch of cooler weather, than it has been, here in Florida, so that's cooling the water down more too. Pretty much every water temperature is now below 80F along the Gulf and that should drop more in the coming days. |
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