KS Under-the-Gun Today
Posted by JAC on 6/15/2009, 9:38 am




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0739 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
 
  VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  ACROSS MUCH OF KS...
 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE
  A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS
  THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
  TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL AID IN THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM
  THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
  STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF
  PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
  A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
  KS...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF LOW
  ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS.  MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
  WEST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE
  VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE
  ELIMINATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST
  LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
  PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES
  DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK
  EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS.  AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
  MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
  DATA...APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADE TO A
  CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF KS.


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KS Under-the-Gun Today - JAC, 6/15/2009, 9:38 am
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