Forecast now is for Cat2 at landfall near Hamamatsu
Posted by JAC on 10/6/2009, 7:27 am

Maintaining an excellent hot-core.













060900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A FULLY-DEVELOPED TYPHOON WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY MELOR HAS DEVELOPED BETTER
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT IS STARTING
TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, RECENT INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS WANING DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS ALSO BASED ON FIXES BY THE SAME AGENCIES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMEENT WITH THE
SYSTEM STARTING RECURVATURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE AIDS
ALSO AGREE ON LANDFALL WEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN34 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND BEGUN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST ON A MORE
POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED ITS WELL-DEFINED EYE, SYMMETRY AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION INDICATES A SLIGHT FLATTENING ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK, A POSSIBLE INDICATION OF THE ONSET OF STRONG
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 20W HAS MAINTAINED ITS DIVERGENT MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
OVERHEAD IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FIXES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND
PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
3. FORECAST REASONING
  A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
  B. TY MELOR WILL CREST THE WESTERN EDGE OF STEERING RIDGE DESCRIBED
ABOVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN RECURVE NORTHEAST, MAKE LANDFALL
INTO HONSHU NEAR HAMAMATSU BY TAU 48, PASS JUST WEST OF TOKYO THEN
EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN OFF SENDAI BY TAU 60. IT WILL THEN
GET ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE  AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AS EVIDENCED BY A NARROW ENVELOPE SPREAD. NOTABLY, JGSM,
WBAR AND ECMWF ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR AND GFS
ON THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MEDIAN.//
NNNN



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Melor the Monster - a solid Cat5, 914mb and dropping - JAC, 10/3/2009, 9:25 pm
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