Threat lowered due to marginal instability forecast
Posted by
JAC on 12/6/2009, 7:24 am
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CST SUN DEC 06 2009 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS IS FORECAST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD. THIS INCREASING FLOW FIELD WILL OCCUR ON SRN FRINGE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR OR E OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEYS WHILE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES.
...ERN CAROLINAS... EWD MIGRATION/DEVELOPMENT OF SLY LLJ WILL HASTEN THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND EVENTUALLY ERN GULF OF MEXICO BASIN IN WAKE OF RETREATING WEDGE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WAA ACTS ON MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST. ..MEAD.. 12/06/2009
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In this thread:
UKMET has a bomb off northeast!!966mb -
Fred,
12/4/2009, 8:06 pm- Eastern Lake Erie Surge Threat - Anung Mwka, 12/8/2009, 9:47 pm
- 40 knot surface winds north of Cape Cod - JAC, 12/6/2009, 8:46 pm
- Latest SREF - JAC, 12/6/2009, 8:01 am
- Heavy Snow for Anung & CX - JAC, 12/6/2009, 7:29 am
- Severe Weather for SE on Tuesday - JAC, 12/5/2009, 7:57 pm
- Threat lowered due to marginal instability forecast - JAC, 12/6/2009, 7:24 am
- Re: UKMET has a bomb off northeast!!966mb - JAC, 12/4/2009, 9:13 pm
- Re: UKMET has a bomb off northeast!!966mb - AlligatorPointer, 12/4/2009, 8:45 pm
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