Threat lowered due to marginal instability forecast
Posted by JAC on 12/6/2009, 7:24 am
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0211 AM CST SUN DEC 06 2009
 
  VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL
  GULF STATES...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
 
  CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS
  IS FORECAST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS
  DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD.  THIS INCREASING FLOW FIELD WILL OCCUR
  ON SRN FRINGE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
  WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO MID MS VALLEY.  AT
  THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
  THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR OR E OF THE FOUR
  CORNERS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
  EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEYS WHILE
  ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SERN
  ATLANTIC STATES.


...ERN CAROLINAS...
 
  EWD MIGRATION/DEVELOPMENT OF SLY LLJ WILL HASTEN THE INFLUX OF
  MOISTURE OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND EVENTUALLY ERN GULF OF MEXICO
  BASIN IN WAKE OF RETREATING WEDGE FRONT.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
  SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WAA ACTS ON
  MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.  CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT
  THE MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.  THEREFORE...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL
  BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
 
  ..MEAD.. 12/06/2009
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UKMET has a bomb off northeast!!966mb - Fred, 12/4/2009, 8:06 pm
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