Major Winter Storm: OK to VA
Posted by JAC on 1/28/2010, 7:04 am




SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
404 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010

VALID 12Z THU JAN 28 2010 - 00Z SAT JAN 30 2010

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM AS IT TRACKS EAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION NEAR A COLD
FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. COLD AIR IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER
TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
EVENING APPROACHES... A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN EASTWARD TRACKING SURFACE LOW ALLOWS
COLD AIR TO FILTER DOWN ITS WEST SIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER OF AIR ALOFT TO ERODE AND CREATING A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW.

THROUGH FRIDAY... ABOUT A 200 - 300 MILE WIDE SWATH OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA WITH THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
WITH PERHAPS SOME SEVERE STORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE GREATER THAN AVERAGE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND OUT OF THE GULF WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

COLD AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE COUNTRYS MID SECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE EAST COAST TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. IN ADDITION... A VERY COLD DOME OF COLD AIR
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND
NOVA SCOTIA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SNOW WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
MAINE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. IN
ADDITION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS PRODUCING
GREATER ACCUMULATIONS.

OUT WEST... THE REGION STAYS DRY UNTIL A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO LOCATIONS FROM
WESTERN WASHINGTON TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

OTTO




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Major Winter Storm: OK to VA - JAC, 1/28/2010, 7:04 am
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