Severe Weather South TX
Posted by JAC on 1/28/2010, 3:27 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0147 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 281947Z - 282145Z
 
  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
  SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW...WHICH COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
  21-23Z.
 
  WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE JUST BEGINNING TO PIVOT AROUND
  THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU CLOSED
  LOW...MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PERSIST ACROSS
  THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
  SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT... COUPLED WITH
  DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW... APPEARS TO BE
  MAINTAINING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM
  DEVELOPMENT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING PROGRESSES BENEATH A COLD
  MID-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -20C.  MIXED
  LAYER CAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
  A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
  CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD SERVE TO FOCUS INTENSIFYING STORMS WITHIN
  THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
  MEXICO.  ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
  PROBABLY SPREAD ACROSS THE RIVER INTO TEXAS ...AIDED BY 50-70 KT
  WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET IS
  BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF THE SOUTHERN
  PLAINS...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
  HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO.
 
  ..KERR.. 01/28/2010
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Major Winter Storm: OK to VA - JAC, 1/28/2010, 7:04 am
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