Re: Freezing Rain Potential; OK to NC
Posted by JAC on 1/28/2010, 7:12 am


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1222 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SW OK...
 
  CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
 
  VALID 280622Z - 281215Z
 
  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN NM INTO WRN
  OK THURSDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL THREAT OF FZRA WILL TRANSITION TO A
  SLEET/SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WHILE
  PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NERN NM.
 
  UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SONORA MX AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
  PROGRESSION EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
  CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. USING 21Z
  SREF/RUC/4KM WRF NMM COMPOSITE...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
  EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM I-40 IN ERN NM ENEWD TO
  NRN OK AT 09Z...AND FROM THE WRN S PLAINS ENEWD TO NEAR THE OKC
  METRO AT 15Z.  A WARM NOSE ALOFT AOA 0 DEG C /IN THE 800-700 MB
  LAYER/ WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO ERODE AS ASCENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE
  TO LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
 
  FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT...MAINLY
  IN THE NRN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE...BY 12Z AS PERSISTENT ADIABATIC
  COOLING OCCURS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER. EXPANDING BAND OF FREEZING
  RAIN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING S /MAINLY AFFECTING THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
  AFTER 12Z/...WHILE A NARROW SW TO NE CORRIDOR OF SLEET IS EXPECTED
  IN THE NRN S PLAINS AND THE SRN/ERN PANHANDLE...AND SNOW IN THE
  NRN/WRN PANHANDLE. CONTINUED COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
  SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM
  BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS ERN NM OF 1 INCH PER
  HOUR AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED. FZRA PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE TX
  PANHANDLE AND SW OK WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN .05 TO .10 INCH PER
  HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
 
  ..ROGERS/SMITH.. 01/28/2010
 
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Major Winter Storm: OK to VA - JAC, 1/28/2010, 7:04 am
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