12P: Bora Bora and Tahiti Under-the-Gun
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2010, 7:06 am





TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  010000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 166.8W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 166.8W


REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONSOLIDATION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
010058Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30
TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 312009Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER FAVORABLE
SST (28 TO 30C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 12P SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 48, THEN SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY 20 KNOTS PER DAY UNTIL TAU
72, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS. AT TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
(NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, AND ECMWF), BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
311500Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 311500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN
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12P: Bora Bora and Tahiti Under-the-Gun - JAC, 2/1/2010, 7:06 am
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