OLI should ramp up quickly - eyewall forming
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2010, 10:02 am
DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
 01/1422 UTC   13.2S    162.7W       T3.0/3.0         OLI -- Southeast Pacific  







REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 162.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO, AS WELL AS A 010842Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND TRACKS IT INCREASINGLY POLEWARD. ALL
THE WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL VENTING AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS UNTIL
NEAR TAU 96, AROUND THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO ELEVATE AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE LAST FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE TRENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN
SLOWED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS, IN LINE WITH A SLOWER MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN
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12P: Bora Bora and Tahiti Under-the-Gun - JAC, 2/1/2010, 7:06 am
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