Latest JTWC Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 2/3/2010, 11:00 pm
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 153.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 28 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 040023Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS SLIGHT EROSION OF EYE WALL CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OVERALL, IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND PHFO. THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO CORRELATE
WITH A 031907Z ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BORA BORA INDICATING
010/30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER AN
ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
(REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24) AND TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER SST WITH INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NEAR TAU 96, TC OLI IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z AND 050300Z.
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In this thread:
12P: Bora Bora and Tahiti Under-the-Gun -
JAC,
2/1/2010, 7:06 am- 1 killed in Cyclone Oli in French Polynesia - JAC, 2/5/2010, 7:22 am
- RI, Raw T# 6.9, 926mb - JAC, 2/4/2010, 10:49 am
- Cyclone Oli hits French Polynesia - JAC, 2/4/2010, 6:25 am
- Re: 12P: Bora Bora and Tahiti Under-the-Gun - hanna, 2/1/2010, 9:49 pm
- OLI should ramp up quickly - eyewall forming - JAC, 2/1/2010, 10:02 am
- Great looking poleward outflow channel and anti-cyclone - JAC, 2/1/2010, 7:13 am
- Lotsa hot water to work with - JAC, 2/1/2010, 7:09 am
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