Re: Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?)
Posted by Fred on 2/8/2010, 7:56 am
From Jay Engle,a Local MET


* UPDATED  2/8  1:30 AM *

LATE NIGHT UPDATE - PART 2

What I noticed from the overall consensus of the modeling from 2/7 12z and 2/8 0z runs was that the upper level energy / slug of vorticity is just a hair farther north than on the previous runs from the previous 36 hours. Essentially this is telling me that the modeling is just a hair weaker with the Block up in Eastern Canada, thus not quite digging the upper level low farther south and resulting in a slightly more progressive system along the east coast. So a relatively more progressive system would translate to a significant to major snowstorm / blizzard, but NOT colossal. This is just an observation by me from the modeling overall and how they are handling the trajectory of the 500mb upper level low / energy as it bottoms out and comes across and crashes into the Mid Atlantic coast. Again, NOT a forecast but just an observation of the overall trend of the modeling.

Remember, this is a major upper level storm that grabs southern branch moisture as it is getting fed underneath continuously by the upper level trough west of Mexico and Baja.

The question to me is NOT whether this is a major snowstorm / blizzard for the corridor, but whether it is outright colossal and one for the ages.

If the vort max drives just a tiny hair farther south of the modeling consensus right now, but not too far south as to not going over or just south of Hatteras, then this will be colossal. If the 500mb low tracks closer to the NJ coast as opposed to off the Del Marva then there will be less snow, especially farther south and west across the corridor (Philly and NJ coast). But remember, less snow being a relative term here. My suspicion here is that locations just west and north of NYC will be the jackpot winners with the locally higher amounts. Part of this will be due also to locations farther north and west having higher snow to liquid ratios (fluff factor).

Til later on Monday - Jay
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Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?) - Fred, 2/7/2010, 1:36 pm
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