Possible hurricane force winds in gust??
Posted by Fred on 2/9/2010, 7:46 am
This is a blog from Jay Engle,a local MET


* UPDATED 2/9 12:30 AM *

HOW LOW CAN IT GO ?

My head has still not stopped spinning. Some of the central pressures I am seeing with this in the modeling now is absolutely eye popping. Sub 970 storm, with an in-house model that I look at getting down to 964 mb !!! That type of pressure gets it close to a CAT 2 Hurricane in terms of just minimum (central) air pressure. Perhaps a couple of things will have it go down as top 3 in winter storms along the East Coast. Lets see how it does in the Kocin - Ucellini rating of east coast winter storms after all is said and done. Major metropolitan areas will come to a halt. Philly to NYC looks to be in its cross hairs.

The 0z runs look warmer so mixing issues looking more and more likely for parts of Long Island and into the Central and Southern NJ coast. I still like where I have my highest totals as I feel model QPF will lead some off the true snow jackpot. At the western edge of the tongue of the best 850mb warm advection is where you will find your highest snowfall totals / rates. Western and Northwestern NJ watch out! But lets put snow amounts aside for a minute. This storm will knock out power with heavy wet snow for many, and with gale force winds, especially along the shore and for Long Island. When the wind blows out of the east and northeast with this storm, is when the I believe the highest wind gusts will occur. With central pressures progged to get down in the 960s on a lot of the models, I would be concerned about the possibility of a hurricane force wind gust somewhere. Not forecasting this, but a distinct possibility. Truly a storm for the ages on a lot of the modeling now. So lets see what the actual weather does and where.

I will NOT be able to post during the morning or afternoon on Tuesday. So my next post will not be until some time in the evening, or possibly late Tuesday night. Oh, and I am at work again for the longer range so will gradually get back to business as usual.

Get your popcorn ready and check those back up generators.

- Jay

http://snowi95.com/TechnicalSynopticDiscussion.aspx
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Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?) - Fred, 2/7/2010, 1:36 pm
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