Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas
Posted by JAC on 3/12/2010, 7:19 am
Fiji's emergency services went on full alert from 10pm Friday as the nation awaits the arrival of Cyclone Tomas and winds of up to 250kmph, making it a destructive Category 4 cyclone at landfall.

The National Emergency Operations Centre in Suva is now working 24/7 and in turn activated agencies under its umbrella that include the Fiji Police and Army, Red Cross, Health ministry, Public Works and the Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA).

Emergency teams in all four divisions have also been activated.

FEA workers are on standby and the Public Works ministry has increased manning its 24-hour call centre.

The Marine department is also on alert.

Schools around the country shut down at noon today while members of the security and defense forces have been activated.

On its forecasted path, the cyclone is expected to be over eastern Vanua Levu around midnight Sunday with winds gusting up to 250kmph, making it a very destructive Category 4 cyclone.

Another depression brewing North West of Fiji near Vanuatu weather officials say is making it hard for them to accurately track the path Cyclone Tomas would take.

They say there is every possibility Tomas could move further west once it reaches Fiji, directly threatening Viti Levu in the process.

Sea movements along the southern coasts and around Lau, Lomaiviti and Kadavu are expected to see large swells from tomorrow as the prolonged south-easterly wind flow increases in strength.

It includes the Coral Coast of Viti Levu.

Fiji has been placed on a cyclone alert with Tropical Cyclone Tomas now slowly drifting westwards towards Fiji.

Located about 700 kilometres northeast of Udu Point this afternoon, Tomas is expected to curve southwest tomorrow and south as it approaches Fiji on Sunday.

Tomas presently has average winds of 35 knots and momentary gusts of up to 55 knots close to its centre.

However, the Nadi weather office says the cyclone is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm overnight and may reach Category 3 hurricane status by late tomorrow.

Director Meteorology Rajendra Prasad said that on its current path, Tomas is expected to start affecting Fiji from later on Sunday. However, associated rain and wind bands could arrive by late tomorrow.

Prasad said that at this stage, it appears that the northern and eastern divisions may be more directly affected, but he said this could change.

"Once a hurricane, Tomas may, to a large extent, dictate its own path," he said.

Prasad said that people should stay on alert and be ready to take full precautions and preparedness action once a warning is issued for specific areas.

A second tropical depression located west of Vanuatu's Santo island is expected to deepen and form into a tropical cyclone overnight but is not a direct threat to Fiji at this stage because it is expected to drift westwards.





120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 177.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH
BUDDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED IN
NEARLY ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION, THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL LIMITED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH
BOTH INDICATE A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. NFFN IS ASSESSING THE INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 40 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TRACK WILL BEND TOWARDS FIJI AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS EQUATORWARD AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND FIJI THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR 30C AND
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT THIS INTENSIFICATION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE ADDITION OF THE ECMWF TRACKER TO THE CONSENSUS
(WHICH IS NOW THE SLOWEST MEMBER AVAILABLE) AND A SLOWER GFS RUN.
EGRR REMAINS MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODEL PACKING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS. BECAUSE
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN
DELAYED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
(TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN




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Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas - JAC, 3/12/2010, 7:19 am
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