Warning Issued
Posted by
JAC on 3/12/2010, 4:17 pm
HURRICANE WARNING 012 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1922 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 SOUTH 178.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 11.1S 178.0W AT 121800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.0S 178.8W AT 130600 UTC AND NEAR 13.0S 179.6W AT 131800 UTC. ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.
REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 177.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120716Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AS WELL AS CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DIRECTLY ALOFT OF TC 19P, HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AROUND TAU 72, TOMAS SHOULD ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME, TOMAS SHOULD ALSO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES FALL OFF AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE SYSTEM RE-CURVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING QUICKLY EASTWARD, ENABLING THE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PULLS THE SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE FORECAST COMPENSATES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM SLOW AS IT APPROACHES AND ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
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In this thread:
Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas -
JAC,
3/12/2010, 7:19 am- 19 minutes ago Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas - hanna, 3/14/2010, 2:42 pm
- Small Periphery Hot Towers beginning to fire - JAC, 3/13/2010, 5:36 pm
- UL Looking Better - JAC, 3/12/2010, 6:05 pm
- Warning Issued - JAC, 3/12/2010, 4:17 pm
- Intesification likely - JAC, 3/12/2010, 7:30 am
- Re: Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas - JAC, 3/12/2010, 7:23 am
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