Warning Issued
Posted by JAC on 3/12/2010, 4:17 pm
HURRICANE WARNING 012 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1922 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 SOUTH
178.0 WEST AT 121800 UTC.  
POSITION FAIR.  
REPEAT POSITION 11.1S 178.0W AT 121800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN 18 TO 24
HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.0S 178.8W AT 130600 UTC
             AND NEAR 13.0S 179.6W AT 131800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 010.



REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 177.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
120716Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AS WELL AS CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DIRECTLY ALOFT OF TC 19P, HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC
TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AROUND TAU 72, TOMAS SHOULD
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME,
TOMAS SHOULD ALSO REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE MID-LATITUDES INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES FALL OFF AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM RE-CURVES. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PUSHING QUICKLY EASTWARD, ENABLING THE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY BUILD
BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PULLS THE
SYSTEM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE FORECAST COMPENSATES FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM SLOW AS IT APPROACHES AND ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
58
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Fiji braces for Cyclone Tomas - JAC, 3/12/2010, 7:19 am
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