Re: TD / Bonnie alittle take from Jake
Posted by
jack ruby on 7/24/2010, 10:32 am
Okay Jake---Really trying to be honest and fair. PS I like your question--and very much admire what your are trying to accomplish. One point---Tropical forecasting is like trying to capture a fluid and moving thing with a single exposure. Its tough to do. Forecasts have to be constantly updated and revised (witness the NHC). So the key thing is exactly when (or how early) a forecast is made, in regards to how strong or accurate it turned out to be.
1. On the call to become a tropical storm: Seems like you made an early call for tropical cyclone development within a particular time frame north of the DR that was a little premature (with the NHC coming on board shortly after you). Now about 48-60 hours later conditions improved--and you restated your call, which did in fact come to pass shortly thereafter (and it did in fact become a full-fledged tropical storm). At that time the situation was more obvious. Rating 7-8
2. On the landfall in S Fl: Very Good---Now I'm basing this on the early tropical cyclone call that did not pan out for a couple of days or so. Because at that early date there was still a chance for a track south of Fl (which I thought might happen). Your call of S Fl was not the most difficult forecast call, but it was right--So Kudo's. Rating 10
3. Second Landfall--Miss-Al Border: I have to defer to when the call was made. Original cone (when system was upgraded to Bonnie and still located well off the Fl coast) had landfall along central La coast. If you made the Al-Miss call at that time, then it was a great call. By the time of landfall in Fl, the official forecast was in extreme SE La--if your call was made then, it was a solid call. If your call was made after Bonnie entered the Gulf--then the call becomes only okay. Rating ????
Overall Rating 8.
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