Re: TD / Bonnie alittle take from Jake
Posted by
jimw on 7/24/2010, 2:03 pm
your post from 7/21
Conclusion: 97L will become TS Bonnie during the next 24-36hrs as a reversal in the upper pattern should reduce shear as a narrow upper high builds over the disturbance and moves in tandom with the TC. A slow WNW track should help the system take advantage of high oceanic heat content through the Bahamas and increase the centers co-location with convection. *****basically the window was very small & the high never established itself & the upper low dominated this system, the system never slowed down but rather sped up************
Note: A more robust TC can occur if the forecasted upper high becomes well established during its track over the Bahamas; especially if strong outflow channels are in place. ****************robust with bust being the key word this was not a robust system*************
overall I give you a 6 to 7 out of 10 for the s fla call & for it to become a storm. I would rate you higher if you said it should remain a weak T storm due to the upper low. You pretty much expected favorable conditions based on your post's but that never played out.. |
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